Mapping environmental suitability of Haemagogus and Sabethes spp. mosquitoes to understand sylvatic transmission risk of yellow fever virus in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991-2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.

Real-Time Genomic Surveillance during the 2021 Re-Emergence of the Yellow Fever Virus in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil.

The 2021 re-emergence of yellow fever in non-human primates in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), southernmost Brazil, resulted in the death of many howler monkeys (genus Alouatta) and led the state to declare a Public Health Emergency of State Importance, despite no human cases reported. In this study, near-complete genomes of yellow fever virus (YFV) recovered from the outbreak were sequenced and examined aiming at a better understanding of the phylogenetic relationships and the spatio-temporal dynamics of the virus distribution. Our results suggest that the most likely sequence of events involved the reintroduction of YFV from the state of São Paulo to RS through the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina, by the end of 2020. These findings reinforce the role of genomic surveillance in determining the pathways of distribution of the virus and in providing references for the implementation of preventive measures for populations in high risk areas.

Predicting Yellow Fever Through Species Distribution Modeling of Virus, Vector, and Monkeys.

Mapping yellow fever (YF) risk is often based on place of infection of human cases, whereas the circulation between nonhuman primates (NHP) and vectors is neglected. In 2008/2009, YF devastated NHP at the southern limit of the disease in the Americas. In view of the recent expansion of YF in Brazil, we modeled the environmental suitability for YF with data from 2008/2009 epizootic, the distribution of NHP (Alouatta spp.), and the mosquito (Haemagogus leucocelaenus) using the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) to define risk areas for YF and their main environmental predictors. We evaluated points of occurrence of YF based on dates of confirmed deaths of NHP in three periods, from October 2008 to: December 2008, March 2009, and June 2009. Variables with greatest influence on suitability for YF were seasonality in water vapor pressure (36%), distribution of NHP (32%), maximum wind speed (11%), annual mean rainfall (7%), and maximum temperature in the warmest month (5%). Models of early periods of the epizootic identified suitability for YF in localities that recorded NHP deaths only months later, demonstrating usefulness of the approach for predicting the disease spread. Our data supported influence of rainfall, air humidity, and ambient temperature on the distribution of epizootics. Wind was highlighted as a predicting variable, probably due to its influence on the dispersal of vectors infected with YF in fragmented landscapes. Further studies on the role of wind are necessary to improve our understanding of the occurrence of YF and other arboviruses and their dispersal in the landscape.

Surveillance for yellow Fever virus in non-human primates in southern Brazil, 2001-2011: a tool for prioritizing human populations for vaccination.

In Brazil, epizootics among New World monkey species may indicate circulation of yellow fever (YF) virus and provide early warning of risk to humans. Between 1999 and 2001, the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul initiated surveillance for epizootics of YF in non-human primates to inform vaccination of human populations. Following a YF outbreak, we analyzed epizootic surveillance data and assessed YF vaccine coverage, timeliness of implementation of vaccination in unvaccinated human populations. From October 2008 through June 2009, circulation of YF virus was confirmed in 67 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul State; vaccination was recommended in 23 (34%) prior to the outbreak and in 16 (24%) within two weeks of first epizootic report. In 28 (42%) municipalities, vaccination began more than two weeks after first epizootic report. Eleven (52%) of 21 laboratory-confirmed human YF cases occurred in two municipalities with delayed vaccination. By 2010, municipalities with confirmed YF epizootics reported higher vaccine coverage than other municipalities that began vaccination. In unvaccinated human populations timely response to epizootic events is critical to prevent human yellow fever cases.

Ecological aspects of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in an Atlantic forest area on the north coast of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil.

Mosquito diversity was determined in an area located on the southern limit of the Atlantic Forest on the north coast of Rio Grande of Sul State. Our major objective was to verify the composition, diversity, and temporal distribution of the mosquito fauna, and the influence of temperature and rainfall. Samplings were performed monthly between December, 2006 and December, 2008, in three biotopes: forest, urban area, and transition area, using CDC light traps and a Nasci vacuum. A total of 2,376 specimens was collected, from which 1,766 (74.32%) were identified as 55 different species belonging to ten genera. Culex lygrus, Aedes serratus, and Aedes nubilus were dominant (eudominant) and constant throughout samplings. The forest environment presented the highest species dominance (D(S) =0.20), while the transition area showed the highest values of diversity (H'=2.55) and evenness (J'=0.85). These two environments were the most similar, according to the Morisita-Horn Index (I(M-H) =0.35). Bootstrap estimates showed that 87.3% of the species occurring in the region were detected. The seasonal pattern showed a greater abundance of mosquitoes between May and October, indicating the period to intensify entomological surveillance in that area.

Yellow fever virus in Haemagogus leucocelaenus and Aedes serratus mosquitoes, southern Brazil, 2008.

Yellow fever virus (YFV) was isolated from Haemagogus leucocelaenus mosquitoes during an epizootic in 2001 in the Rio Grande do Sul State in southern Brazil. In October 2008, a yellow fever outbreak was reported there, with nonhuman primate deaths and human cases. This latter outbreak led to intensification of surveillance measures for early detection of YFV and support for vaccination programs. We report entomologic surveillance in 2 municipalities that recorded nonhuman primate deaths. Mosquitoes were collected at ground level, identified, and processed for virus isolation and molecular analyses. Eight YFV strains were isolated (7 from pools of Hg. leucocelaenus mosquitoes and another from Aedes serratus mosquitoes); 6 were sequenced, and they grouped in the YFV South American genotype I. The results confirmed the role of Hg. leucocelaenus mosquitoes as the main YFV vector in southern Brazil and suggest that Ae. serratus mosquitoes may have a potential role as a secondary vector.